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1.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 21244, 2023 12 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38040734

RESUMO

A tool called LARCalc, for calculating the radiological consequences of accidental large scale nuclear power plant releases based on estimates of 137Cs ground deposition, is presented. LARCalc is based on a previously developed models that has been further developed and packaged into an easy-to-use decision support tool for training of decision makers. The software visualises the radiological impact of accidental nuclear power plant releases and the effects of various protective measures. It is thus intended as a rapid alternative for planning protective measures in emergency preparedness management. The tool predicts projected cumulative effective dose, projected lifetime attributable cancer risk, and residual dose for some default accidental release scenarios. Furthermore, it can predict the residual dose and avertable cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR) resulting from various protective measures such as evacuation and decontamination. It can also be used to predict the avertable collective dose and the increase in cancer incidence within the specified population. This study presents the theoretical models and updates to the previous models, and examples of different nuclear fallout scenarios and subsequent protective actions to illustrate the potential use of LARCalc.


Assuntos
Neoplasias , Monitoramento de Radiação , Cinza Radioativa , Liberação Nociva de Radioativos , Humanos , Centrais Nucleares , Fatores de Risco , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Fatores Etários , Monitoramento de Radiação/métodos , Doses de Radiação , Cinza Radioativa/efeitos adversos , Cinza Radioativa/análise
2.
J Environ Radioact ; 270: 107268, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37597467

RESUMO

Land remediation is an important part of restoration measures after a radioactive fallout containing long-lived fission products such as 137Cs. In this multidisciplinary study, we focused on three main issues related to remediation of contaminated urban areas. First, we assessed how much decontamination contributes to reducing resident radiation exposure and how much this reduction depends on the timing of implemented measures. Second, we calculated direct and indirect costs of decontamination in an industrialized country such as Sweden. Finally, in a survey study, we considered reactions of Swedish citizens to being given the hypothetical option of moving to a site decontaminated after radioactive fallout and how this predicted response might influence the design of contingency plans. The main findings are that clean-up operations must be done within the first few years after a fallout to contribute significantly to reducing residual dose. If conducted within 1-2 years, large-scale decontamination can, on average, avert 20-200 manSv per km2 residential area and unit ground deposition of 137Cs (1 MBq). The estimated direct costs (in 2020 purchasing power) would amount to 100 million Euro per km2 decontaminated residential area (comparable to Japanese estimates after the Fukushima accident), generating 39,000 m3 of radioactive waste on average, mainly in the form of 137Cs-contaminated topsoil. In our survey study of 2291 Swedish respondents about their willingness to return to decontaminated homes, women, families with resident children, and high-income earners exhibited more skepticism about returning, even if authorities were to deem it safe. The demographic pattern in attitudes was similar to that found among evacuees in the Fukushima prefecture after 2011. We conclude that predefined ranges of measured 137Cs ground deposition can be used as guidance for rescue leaders in the early post-accident phase in long-term planning for affected areas. This planning should include timing and intensity of decontamination measures, duration of evacuation, and risk communication to citizens. Because some citizens expressed both high risk perception and risk aversion, however, timely and dialogic communication is unlikely to limit a shift after the incident to an older and more male-dominated population composition. There is a risk that those who can afford to do so will move away, whereas people whose wealth is locked in property (houses or businesses) will feel stuck. Perceptions of unfairness may fray the social fabric and complicate resettlement, which in some cases may mean inefficient outlay of decontamination costs. We believe that the issue of monetary compensation to affected residents requires priority in future work.


Assuntos
Acidente Nuclear de Fukushima , Monitoramento de Radiação , Cinza Radioativa , Criança , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Cinza Radioativa/análise , Descontaminação , Radioisótopos de Césio/análise , Japão
3.
Sci Total Environ ; 855: 158899, 2023 Jan 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36165824

RESUMO

Bedrock U has been used as a proxy for local indoor radon exposure. A preliminary assessment of cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 809,939 adult males living in 9 different Swedish counties in 1986 has been used to correlate the cumulative lung cancer and total cancer (excluding lung) incidence rates between 1986 and 2020, respectively with the municipality average value of bedrock U concentration obtained from Swedish geological Survey (SGU). To control for regional difference in tobacco smoking, data on county average smoking prevalence, obtained from a survey conducted by the Public Health Agency of Sweden from 2001 to 2004, was used. Regression analysis shows that there is a significant positive correlation between smoking prevalence adjusted lung cancer incidence rate in males and the municipality bedrock U concentration (R2 = 0.273 with a slope 5.0 ±â€¯0.87·10-3 ppm-1). The correlation is even more significant (R2 = 0.759 with a slope = 4.8 ±â€¯0.25·10-3 ppm-1) when assessed on population weighted cancer incidence data binned in nine intervals of municipality average bedrock U concentration (ranging from 0.97 to 4.9 ppm). When assessing the corresponding correlations for total cancer incidence rate (excluding cancer of the lung) with adjustment for smoking prevalence, there appears to be no or little correlation with bedrock U concentration (R2 = 0.031). We conclude that an expanded future study needs age-standardized cancer incidence data to obtain a more consistent exposure-response model. Such model could be used to predict future lung cancer cases based on geological survey maps of bedrock U as an alternative to laborious indoor radon measurements, and to discern what future lung cancer rates can be expected for a population nearing zero smoking prevalence, with and without radon prevention.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação , Radônio , Urânio , Humanos , Adulto , Masculino , Radônio/análise , Incidência , Urânio/análise , Suécia/epidemiologia , Cidades , Fumar , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Fumar Tabaco , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação/epidemiologia
4.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 21656, 2022 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36522402

RESUMO

Decontamination of urban areas may be necessary in the case of extensive fallout of radioactive material after a nuclear accident, as removal of contaminated soil and vegetation will significantly reduce doses for the residents in an area affected by fallout. Experience from Japan shows that cleanup operations of urban areas may take years despite investment in ample resources. The time delay between the initial fallout and completion of the decontamination measures allows natural and physical processes to affect the results. The efficiency of the decontamination will therefore depend significantly on time. Radioecological modeling and computer simulation of urban topography with one-story houses were applied in this study to estimate action-influenced time-integrated dose reductions (TDR) of contaminated topsoil removal as a function of time after the fallout. Results indicate that the TDR decreases gradually after the fallout depending on the vertical migration rate of radiocesium and, to some extent, the initial 134Cs/137Cs ratio. Delaying the topsoil removal from 1 to 10 years will result in a TDR decrease by more than a factor of two. Removing the topsoil within one year after fallout results typically in an averted effective dose between 34 and 80 mSv per MBq m-2 deposition of 137Cs for residents in wooden houses. The corresponding values for residents in brick houses are about 50% lower due to higher shielding. Additional modeling is needed to estimate how age and sex influence the averted detriment to affected cohorts. In addition, more in-depth knowledge of how the efficiency of topsoil removal in practice compares with hypothetical models and the effect of incomplete removal of radiocesium is needed to improve calculations of TDR values.


Assuntos
Acidente Nuclear de Fukushima , Monitoramento de Radiação , Cinza Radioativa , Poluentes Radioativos do Solo , Poluentes Radioativos do Solo/análise , Monitoramento de Radiação/métodos , Descontaminação/métodos , Simulação por Computador , Radioisótopos de Césio/análise , Solo , Japão , Cinza Radioativa/análise
5.
Sci Total Environ ; 838(Pt 3): 156349, 2022 Sep 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35660436

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Uncertainty in the dose-response of low dose radiation raised concern of an increased cancer incidence in Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A closed cohort was created of all males ≥18 years of age living in the Northern Sweden in 1986. In total 826,400 individuals were enrolled including 40,874 hunters. A nested case-control design was used with five controls randomly selected for each cancer case matched on year of diagnosis and year of birth. Individual absorbed colon dose was calculated 1986 to 2015. Allowing for a 5-year latency period Hazard Ratios (HR) per mGy with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) were calculated in a conditional logistic regression adjusted by rural/non-rural living, length of education and pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence 1980 to 1985. A total of 127,109 cancer cases occurred from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2015. Cancer was classified in: 1) Organ-specific (stomach, colon, liver, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, thyroid and leukaemia), 2) Other and 3) Not previously associated to ionizing radiation. RESULTS: The average colon dose in cases was 1.77 mGy compared to controls 1.73 mGy. Hunters average colon dose was 2.32 mGy. Organ-specific cancers showed the highest HR per mGy both in the full cohort, adj HR 1.019 (1.014-1.024) and the hunter subcohort, adj HR 1.014 (1.001-1.027) during follow-up 1991 to 2015. Other cancer and Not previously associated with ionizing radiation showed lower HR per mGy. Therefore, the adj HR per mGy for Total cancer, 1.013 (1.009-1.017) was explained by Organ-specific cancer. Increased adj HR per mGy was seen in stomach, colon and prostate cancer, respectively in the full cohort and lung cancer in hunters. CONCLUSIONS: Some cancer sites previously associated with ionizing radiation showed a positive adjusted HR per mGy both in the full cohort and in the hunter subcohort.


Assuntos
Acidente Nuclear de Chernobyl , Colo , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação , Adulto , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Colo/efeitos da radiação , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação/epidemiologia , Centrais Nucleares , Doses de Radiação , Suécia/epidemiologia
6.
PLoS One ; 17(6): e0268556, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35731746

RESUMO

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of experimental data on performance of a developed Bayesian algorithm tailored for orphan source search, estimating which parameters affect the accuracy of the algorithm. The algorithm can estimate the position and activity of a gamma-ray point source from experimental mobile gamma spectrometry data. Bayesian estimates were made for source position and activity using mobile gamma spectrometry data obtained from one 123% HPGe detector and two 4-l NaI(Tl) detectors, considering angular variations in counting efficiency for each detector. The data were obtained while driving at 50 km/h speed past the sources using 1 s acquisition interval in the detectors. It was found that deviations in the recorded coordinates of the measurements can potentially increase the uncertainty in the position of the source 2 to 3 times and slightly decrease the activity estimations by about 7%. Due to the various sources of uncertainty affecting the experimental data, the maximum predicted relative deviations of the activity and position of the source remained about 30% regardless of the signal-to-noise ratio of the data. It was also found for the used vehicle speed of 50 km/h and 1 s acquisition time, that if the distance to the source is greater than the distance travelled by the detector during the acquisition time, it is possible to use point approximations of the count-rate function in the Bayesian likelihood with minimal deviations from the integrated estimates of the count-rate function. This approximation reduces the computational demands of the algorithm increasing the potential for applying this method in real-time orphan source search missions.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Espectrometria gama , Teorema de Bayes , Raios gama
7.
Appl Radiat Isot ; 184: 110195, 2022 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35338972

RESUMO

In this study an algorithm was developed for calculating maximum detectable distance (MDD) for mobile gamma-ray detection of lost sources in-situ for some common mobile spectrometer systems and gamma sources (137Cs and 60Co). The MDD is a function of detector efficiency, vehicle speed, acquisition time interval, radiation background level and accepted frequency of false alarms. To test its accuracy in predicting the MDD experiments were conducted in-situ. Results indicate agreement with experimental mobile detection distance measurements for 60Co and 137Cs point sources. Both the algorithm and the field test show that at a vehicle speed of 50 km/h, the optimal acquisition time intervals range between 3 and 10 s when searching for unshielded sources with activities of 137Cs and 60Co in the order of 100 MBq. Longer acquisition time intervals (20-30 s) are better to detect higher activity sources at the same speed. However, at higher speeds, shorter time intervals should be selected to increase the MDD. The developed algorithm can help select the optimal combination of detectors, vehicle speed, and instrument settings when using mobile searching in the event of loss of gamma-ray sources.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Espectrometria gama , Espectrometria gama/métodos
8.
Sci Total Environ ; 815: 152725, 2022 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34974011

RESUMO

Radiocesium, 137Cs, is one of the most common and dispersed human-made radionuclides. Substantial stocks of 137Cs are stored in organic layers, like soils and peat, as a consequence of nuclear weapons fallout and accidental releases. As climate warming progresses these organic layers are subject to enhanced risks of wildfires, especially in the vast boreal biome of the northern hemisphere. Reemission of 137Cs to the atmosphere is therefore presumed to increase. Here, we experimentally investigated the emissions and redistribution of 137Cs in smoldering fires of boreal soil and peat by varying the oxygen concentration during combustion. For both soil and peat, significantly more 137Cs was released through flaming combustion in 21% O2 (50% and 31%, respectively) compared to smoldering in reduced O2 environments (14% and 8%, respectively). The residual ashes were heavily enriched (>100%) in 137Cs. Hence, after a wildfire induced volatilization of 137Cs, there exists further pathways of 137Cs enriched ash to proliferate in the environment. These results serve as a link between wildfire combustion conditions and the mobility of the 137Cs inventory found in ground fuels of the boreal environment and can be valuable for radiological risk assessments in a warmer and a more nuclear energy reliant world.


Assuntos
Incêndios , Incêndios Florestais , Atmosfera , Radioisótopos de Césio/análise , Humanos , Oxigênio , Solo
9.
J Radiol Prot ; 41(4)2021 Nov 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34634780

RESUMO

In the event of an accidental release of radioactive elements from a nuclear power plant, it has been shown that the radionuclides contributing the most to long-term exposure are134Cs and137Cs. In the case of nuclear power plant fallout, with subsequent intake of radionuclides through the food chain, the internal absorbed dose to target tissues from protracted intake of radionuclides needs to be estimated. Internal contamination from food consumption is not caused by a single intake event; hence, the committed equivalent dose, calculated by a dose coefficient or dose per content function, cannot be easily used to calculate the cumulative absorbed dose to relevant target tissues in the body. In this study, we calculated updated absorbed dose rate coefficients for134Cs and137Cs based on data from the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) on specific absorbed fractions. The absorbed dose rate coefficients are provided for male and female adult reference phantoms, respectively, assuming a steady-state distribution of Cs that we calculated from the ICRP biokinetic model for Cs. With these coefficients, the absorbed dose to the listed target tissues, separately and to the total body, are related to the number of nuclear transitions (time-integrated activity) in each listed source region. Our new absorbed dose rate coefficients are given for the complete set of target tissues and have not been presented before. They are also provided for aggregated categories of organs to facilitate epidemiological studies.


Assuntos
Corpo Humano , Proteção Radiológica , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Centrais Nucleares , Imagens de Fantasmas , Doses de Radiação
10.
Sci Total Environ ; 792: 148310, 2021 Oct 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34146801

RESUMO

Wildfires are expected to increase with warmer climate, which can contribute to the mobility and the resuspension of long-lived and potentially hazardous radionuclides. The release of 137Cs during combustion of dried litter, forest floor organic soil, and peat was investigated in a small-scale experimental set-up. Combustion conditions were varied to simulate different wildfire scenarios, and the fuels were dried organic material collected in a boreal environment of Sweden that was contaminated following the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The combustion-related release of 137Cs to the air was on average 29% of the initial fuel content, while 71% of the initial 137Cs remained in the ashes after the combustion. Peat and forest soil had the highest releases (39% and 37%, respectively), although these numbers should be viewed as potential releases since authentic wildfire combustion of these fuels are usually less effective than observed in these experiments. These results indicates that the 137Cs has migrated downwards in the organic material, which imply potentially significantly more 137Cs emissions in severe wildfires with intense combustion of the organic vertical profile in peatbogs and forests. More 137Cs tended to be released during intense and efficient combustion processes, although no significant differences among combustion intensities were observed. The generated experimental data was used in an emission scenario to investigate the possible range in 137Cs emissions from a wildfire. Our study shows that a severe wildfire in a contaminated area of 10,000 ha could potentially release up to 7 TBq of 137Cs. This is the first laboratory study to investigate 137Cs release upon varying combustion conditions using real fallout contaminated organic material obtained from a boreal environment.


Assuntos
Poluentes Radioativos do Solo , Incêndios Florestais , Radioisótopos de Césio/análise , Florestas , Solo , Poluentes Radioativos do Solo/análise , Taiga
11.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 4643, 2021 02 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33633192

RESUMO

The uncontrolled release of long-lived radioactive substances from nuclear accidents can contaminate inhabited land areas. The removal of topsoil is an important method for reducing future radiation exposure but can also generate a large amount of waste that needs safe disposal. To the best of our knowledge, previous studies have determined the optimal depth of topsoil removal but not the size of the area designated for this measure. For this purpose, this study performed Monte Carlo simulations of hypothetical 137Cs surface contamination on various ground areas in a typical northern European suburban area. The goal was to study the size of the areas needed and amount of waste generated to achieve a certain relative and absolute dose reduction. The results showed that removing the topsoil from areas larger than 3000 m2 around the houses in the study neighbourhood results in only marginal reduction in radiation exposure. If, on average, 5 cm of topsoil is removed over 3000 m2, then 150 m3 of waste would be generated. However, in this scenario adjacent properties benefit from each other's decontamination, leading to a smaller amount of waste for a given reduction in future radiation exposure per inhabitant of these dwellings. Additionally, it was shown that topsoil removal over limited areas has a higher impact on the absolute dose reduction at an observation point inside or outside the houses with higher initial dose.


Assuntos
Recuperação e Remediação Ambiental , Cinza Radioativa/análise , Poluentes Radioativos do Ar/análise , Método de Monte Carlo , Monitoramento de Radiação/métodos , Poluentes Radioativos do Solo/análise
12.
PLoS One ; 16(1): e0245440, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33481856

RESUMO

To avoid harm to the public and the environment, lost ionizing radiation sources must be found and brought back under the regulatory control as soon as possible. Usually, mobile gamma spectrometry systems are used in such search missions. It is possible to estimate the position and activity of point gamma sources by performing Bayesian inference on the measurement data. The aim of this study was to theoretically investigate the improvements in the Bayesian estimations of the position and activity of a point gamma source due to introduction of data from multiple detectors with angular variations of efficiency. Three detector combinations were tested-a single 123% HPGe detector, single 4l NaI (Tl) detector and a 123% HPGe with 2x4l NaI (Tl) detector combination-with and without angular efficiency variations for each combination resulting in six different variants of the Bayesian algorithm. It was found that introduction of angular efficiency variations of the detectors did improve the accuracy of activity estimation slightly, while introduction of data from additional detectors lowered the signal-to-noise ratio threshold of the system significantly, increasing the stability and accuracy of the estimated source position and activity, for a given signal-to-noise ratio.


Assuntos
Espectrometria gama/métodos , Algoritmos , Teorema de Bayes , Desenho de Equipamento , Raios gama , Monitoramento de Radiação/instrumentação , Monitoramento de Radiação/métodos , Espectrometria gama/instrumentação
13.
J Radiol Prot ; 40(4)2020 Nov 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33045684

RESUMO

Ordinary salt, NaCl, has many properties suitable for dosimetry and has been suggested for both retrospective and prospective optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dosimetry. Lately, the focus has been on NaCl that is compressed into solid pellets, as this improves both its handling and dosimetric properties. In this project, the energy dependence of NaCl pellets produced in-house was investigated for photon energies between 30 and 1.25 MeV. The NaCl pellets were first exposed to free-in-air conditions, and the estimated absorbed dose to the NaCl pellets was compared to the air kerma,Kair, at the point of exposure. Second, a backscatter medium of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) was added, and NaCl pellets were exposed when positioned on a ISO slab phantom to relate the response in the NaCl to the personal dose equivalent,Hp(10). The results show a significant energy dependence for exposure to low-energy photons with a peak over-response compared toKairandHp(10) of up to 18. Comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations show good agreement, even though the simulations cannot account for properties related to the intrinsic luminescence effects of the NaCl pellets or the readout and calibration process. The finite thickness of the NaCl pellet makes it an imperfect Bragg-Grey cavity, which complicates the behaviour of the energy dependence. The results presented here may serve as an important basis for further experimental and theoretical modelling of a build-up layer and filters in efforts to develop a passive personal dosemeter based on NaCl.


Assuntos
Dosimetria por Luminescência Estimulada Opticamente , Fótons , Luminescência , Método de Monte Carlo , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Cloreto de Sódio
14.
Radiat Environ Biophys ; 59(4): 693-702, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32968842

RESUMO

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal properties of pellets from three types of NaCl (two household salts and one analytical grade salt) were investigated for their use in prospective dosimetry. Special attention was given to the OSL signal behaviour with time. The readout protocol was optimised in terms of preheat temperature, and the OSL signal yield of the NaCl pellet with time as well as the fading of the OSL signal with time was investigated. The effects of acute and chronic irradiations were compared. Irradiations and readout were performed using a Risø TL/OSL reader (TL/OSL-DA-15, DTU Nutech, Denmark). The optimal preheat temperature was determined to be 100 ºC, yielding OSL signals similar to a 1 h pause before OSL signal readout. There was no OSL signal fading observed as a function of time, but a decrease in the OSL signal yield of the NaCl pellets with time resulted in an apparent inverse fading when converting the OSL signal to an absorbed dose. For chronic radiation exposures of up to five weeks, the sensitivity of the NaCl pellets was found to be stable. The results of this study show that the use of NaCl pellets for prospective dosimetry is a promising, cost-effective, and accessible complement to commercially available alternatives for accurate absorbed dose determinations.


Assuntos
Dosimetria por Luminescência Estimulada Opticamente , Exposição à Radiação , Cloreto de Sódio , Luminescência , Radiação Ionizante , Temperatura
15.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 14764, 2020 09 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32901089

RESUMO

The emissions of [Formula: see text] into the environment from the nuclear accidents in Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima in 2011 led to the need to decontaminate large areas to avert radiation doses to the population in the affected areas. To be able to perform cost-effective and sustainable remediation, knowledge is needed about how radiation doses can be minimized through optimized interventions such that the greatest possible reduction in radiation dose is obtained with the smallest possible negative impact on the area. Theoretical calculations have been performed to determine how radiation doses in single family houses in a typical Swedish residential suburb arise from a hypothetical [Formula: see text] deposition on the ground. The intention was to highlight how remediation of different parts of the surroundings affects the radiation dose to the residents in a particular property. A Monte Carlo model of the houses and the environment in a suburban area was set up to allow calculations of the dose contributions from different contaminated ground areas such as their own property, neighbouring properties, streets and surrounding recreational areas. Calculations were performed for eleven observation points inside different rooms of the house and one observation point in the garden outside the house, for four houses in the neighbourhood, and for two types of building construction material. The influence of the time spent in different rooms of the house and the contamination of areas surrounding the house was studied. The results show that in general the main dose contribution originates from their own property, but that a significant part (30-80%, depending on the observation point) can come from other areas, showing the importance of considering the surroundings in remediation actions. More detailed analysis of the results showed that the dose contribution from a source region is in general highly dependent on the position of windows in a brick house, whereas for a wooden house the distance to the source region is also of relevance.

16.
PLoS One ; 15(2): e0228549, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32023299

RESUMO

The effect of age and gender in risk estimates related to long-term residence in areas contaminated by nuclear power plant fallout was evaluated by applying the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) concept to an existing exposure model that was previously used for cumulative effective dose estimates. In this study, we investigated the influence of age distribution on the number of cancer cases by applying five different age distributions from nuclear power-producing countries (India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States), and Egypt because of intentions to develop nuclear power. The model was also used to estimate the effective dose and gender-specific LAR as a function of time after fallout for the offspring of the population living in 137Cs fallout areas. The principal findings of this study are that the LAR of cancer incidence (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) over 70 y is about 4.5 times higher for newborn females (5.4% per MBq m-2 of initial 137Cs ground deposition) than the corresponding values for 30 y old women (1.2% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The cumulative LAR for newborn males is more than 3 times higher (3.2% versus 1.0% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The model predicts a generally higher LAR for women until 50 y of age, after which the gender difference converges. Furthermore, the detriment for newborns in the fallout areas initially decreases rapidly (about threefold during the first decade) and then decreases gradually with an approximate half-time of 10-12 y after the first decade. The age distribution of the exposed cohort has a decisive impact on the average risk estimates, and in our model, these are up to about 65% higher in countries with high birth rates compared to low birth rates. This trend implies larger average lifetime attributable risks in countries with a highly proportional younger population. In conclusion, the large dispersion (up to a factor of 4 between newborns and 30 y olds) in the lifetime detriment per unit ground deposition of 137Cs over gender and age in connection with accidental nuclear releases justifies the effort in developing risk models that account for the higher radiation sensitivity in younger populations.


Assuntos
Radioisótopos de Césio/análise , Modelos Estatísticos , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação/etiologia , Centrais Nucleares/estatística & dados numéricos , Cinza Radioativa/efeitos adversos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Carga Corporal (Radioterapia) , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Egito/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Índia/epidemiologia , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Japão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação/epidemiologia , Doses de Radiação , Monitoramento de Radiação , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
17.
J Radiol Prot ; 40(1): 119-133, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31469088

RESUMO

As a measure to prepare for long-term internal dose monitoring of workers at the European Spallation Source (ESS) in Lund, Sweden, operated by the European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ERIC), as well as to enhance emergency preparedness against accidental releases, a series of in vivo measurements were conducted using a high-resolution HPGe detector with a 123% relative efficiency (1.332 MeV). This study describes the whole-body counting set-up, calibration procedure, and subsequent validation measurements using conventional NaI(Tl)-scanning-bed geometry on a selection of workers from the ESS. Detection limits for the relevant gamma emitters 7Be, 172Hf, and 182Ta were determined to be 65 Bq, 130 Bq, and 22 Bq, respectively, using a 2400 s acquisition time. The baseline measurements suggest that care must be taken to ensure that the fluctuations in the presence of radon daughters 214Bi and 214Pb are minimised by, for example, ensuring a minimum air exchange between the measuring room and the ambient air, and by demanding that the measured subjects change clothes and shower before measurement. Furthermore, in a monitoring program for internal doses to spallation source workers, the presence of radionuclides originating from non-work-related sources (such as 226Ra from private water wells or 137Cs from intakes of Chernobyl contaminated foodstuffs), or radionuclides from previous work history (such as 60Co within the nuclear power industry), must be considered.


Assuntos
Carga Corporal (Radioterapia) , Exposição Ocupacional/análise , Espectrometria gama , Contagem Corporal Total/métodos , Berílio/análise , Háfnio/análise , Humanos , Limite de Detecção , Monitoramento de Radiação/métodos , Produtos de Decaimento de Radônio/análise , Suécia , Tantálio/análise
18.
Environ Epidemiol ; 4(2): e084, 2020 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33778348

RESUMO

Male hunters in Swedish counties with high fallout of 137Cs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident have higher radiation exposure due to higher consumption of game compared with the general population. METHODS: Cancer incidence in Sweden was studied in 9 counties with different 137Cs fallout after the Chernobyl NPP accident in 1986. In total, 9,267 cancer cases occurred in hunters and 138,909 cancer cases in non-hunters to 31 December 2015. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using unexposed hunters, or non-hunters, as reference to study internal radiation exposure or hunter life style, respectively. RESULTS: Directly age standardized total cancer incidence showed an increasing trend in non-hunters. For hunters, the total cancer incidence was significantly lower up to 2001 when the total cancer incidence crossed over the weaker non-hunter trend and remained higher for the following 15 years. IRRs for total cancer in hunters versus non-hunters for each county did not show any clear exposure response pattern. IRRs for hunters versus non-hunters were higher regardless of rural/non-rural status with slightly higher risk estimates for the rural settings. The IRR for hunters was 1.06 (95% CI 1.04-1.08) 1986-2015, representing an excess of 531 cancer cases in hunters. CONCLUSION: An increased total incidence of cancer was identified for male hunters compared with male non-hunters. No obvious association between cancer and 137Cs from the Chernobyl NPP accident could be identified, although the exposure classification was too crude to exclude such an association.

19.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 7876, 2019 05 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31133735

RESUMO

In the remedial phase following an accidental radioactive release, it is important that soil decontamination measures are carried out on the areas that contribute most to the radiation dose. In this study, the newly developed concept of isodose lines was applied to the area around typical Swedish dwellings to identify these areas. The influence of the most common building materials in Sweden, wood and brick, and the importance of the positions of doors and windows on the isodose lines were demonstrated for specific positions inside the houses, as well as for the entire house, assuming the residents exhibit typical resident occupancy. Decontamination of the areas within certain isodose lines was shown to result in a greater dose reduction than decontaminating the same area of soil within a certain distance of the house. Furthermore, the impact of vertical migration of the radioactive contaminants in the soil on the isodose lines was studied, showing that the area enclosed by isodose lines decreases over time as the contaminants migrate deeper into the soil. The resulting isodose lines and their change over time are dominated by the downward movement of the contamination in the upper layer of soil. The impact of the variability in contamination on the final isodose lines and their dependence on building materials are demonstrated.

20.
J Radiol Prot ; 2019 May 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31096189

RESUMO

Four of the equations in the article "A model for estimating the total absorbed dose to the thyroid in Swedish inhabitants following the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident: implications for existing international estimates and future model applications " were incomplete or erroneously expressed. A corrigendum is attached with the amended equations.

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